Part One - Chippewa Valley
Technical College
"Paired - Shared Reading"
A Social Skill in 5 Easy Instructions
1.
Form a
side-by-side "paired - shared reading" team
This means that we sit beside our partner,
sharing a handout, and
using small voices
prepare to engage in shared work.
(student names are hypothetical)…
Today’s teams are:
Team 1 -
Dave & Julia
Team 2 - Jean & John
Team 3 - Margaret & Lance
2.
Pickup one copy of each class handout
…
before class to share with your partner.
- Everyone may take a second
copy after class, so each of you retains his or her own copies.
- See that everyone has his or her own name-card.
3.
Fold your namecard in half and display
(or wear it) so that Mr. Meyer can read YOUR name.
4.
Engage in
2
minutes of paired reading with partner(s).
- "Quick-scan"
each handout (10-15 seconds each).
There are three handouts (or links below) called "Evidence
Cards 006, 007, and 008."
-
Each Evidence Card has number paragraphs on it to help you keep track of
where the facts come from.
- Practice using soft voices.
5.
Share
your discoveries.
-
Interrupt each handout with a 2 minute sharing of your discoveries with
the other teams about your reading, so as to achieve the overall group
goal and to meet class objectives in Part Two.
Overall group goal: See that every class member participates, and
masters the material and skills.
Part Two -
Today’s Class Objectives
Acquire these academic skills in 3 Steps
Step 1:
Practice gathering, sharing, and writing down evidence on answers to four questions with teammates,
and
then with classmates.
-
Using tables
at the bottom of each evidence card,
record the evidence card number and
its paragraph (or write the name of the paragraph)
when the
material seems related to, or provides
answers to questions
2A, 2B, 2C, and 2D below.
-
See that
every class member participates, and obtains answers to questions 2A,
2B, 2C, and 2D.
Links to Evidence Cards
(Use card numbers 006, 007, and 008
today.)
| 001 | 002 | 003 | 004 | 005 |
| 006 | 007 | 008 | 009 | 010 |
| 011 | 012 | 013 | 014 | 015 |
| 016 | 017 | 018 | 019 | 020 |
Step 2: Help each class member find evidence and possible answers to:
A. What
are leading economic indicators
(or LEI)?
B. How
are LEI useful?
C. Who
publishes the LEI, and what criteria make such data the best data to
observe?
D. How well do LEI forecast future direction in the American
business cycle?
Step 3:
Earn class bonus points.
First
requirement:
Everyone observe the rubric from Mr. Meyer's Forecast for recording LEI data about U.S. and
other economies.
Second
requirement:
In one paragraph, everyone answers the question:
"Is the world economy
expected to grow during mid-2006?"
Third
requirement:
-
For anyone to obtain the bonus points, every class member must
qualify his or her answer, in writing.
- In a second paragraph, qualify your answer. Qualify your answer by mentioning
(1) those areas of the world,
(2)
events, or
(3) concerns
about which you do NOT have data.
Part Three
- Mr. Meyer’s Personal Forecast
for the U.S. Economy based on recent trends in various leading
economic indicators
My 5 ideas:
1.
The U.S. remains the biggest player on world economic events.
-
The U.S. produces 20% of world gross domestic product, using 5% (or
about 300 million people) of the the 6.5 billion people in the world.
- The table shows the Leading Economic Indicators currently produced by
The Conference Board.
| Country | Direction | LEI Monthly Change | Last Update | |
| 1 | United States |
 |
-0.1 | June 2006 |
| 2 | Australia |
 |
+0.6 | May 2006 |
| 3 | France |
|
+1.1 | June 2006 |
| 4 | Germany |
|
+0.1 | May 2006 |
| 5 | Japan |
|
+0.1 | June 2006 |
| 6 | Korea |
|
+0.4 | June 2006 |
| 7 | Mexico |
|
+1.0 | June 2006 |
| 8 | Spain |
 |
0 | June 2006 |
| 9 | United Kingdom |
|
+0.6 | June 2006 |
2.
Regarding United States Leading economic indicators...
- Three of the ten indicators that make up the
leading index
increased in May, and
seven indicators
declined.
- The positive contributors - beginning with the
largest positive contributor - were
i. manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods
(things like commercial aircraft),
ii. manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials,
and
iii. interest rate spread between 10 year T-bills and the Federal Funds
rate.
- The negative contributors - beginning with the
largest negative contributor - were
i. average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance (inverted),
ii. index of consumer expectations,
iii. real money supply*,
iv. average weekly manufacturing hours,
v. building permits,
vi. stock prices, and
vii. vendor performance.
The leading index now stands at 137.9 (1996=100).
During the six-month span through May, the leading index decreased 0.2
percent, which is
very little change.
From Nov 05 to May 06, five out of ten components were advancing. ( So the
"diffusion index" over the six-month span equals fifty percent).
Hence, the LEI was almost neutral, and only slightly directional in
predicting a contraction of the economy.
3.
Regarding consumer
confidence...
The monthly
Consumer Confidence Survey,
based on a representative sample of 50,000 U.S. households, was reported
to The Conference Board on May 23 by TNS, the world's largest custom
research company.
- Apprehension for the short-term outlook for the economy,
- labor market
conditions, and
- consumers' earning potential pulled this important
harbinger down in May.
- Persons saying "Jobs are plentiful"
decreased.
- Persons saying "jobs are hard to get" increased.
4.
Greater volatility in the stock market indices in May, though unnerving
to many, is always a buying opportunity to others. Should your
portfolio be underweighted, opportunities may exist amongst:
i. those
emerging market
countries whose company shares have fallen nicely;
ii. those technology companies much avoided which include Microsoft (at
a 52 week low recently) and Intel; and
iii. in commodities such as those diversely- mined by BHP Billiton whose
share prices have fallen some 20 per cent in recent days.
5. The American economy remains a strong and vigorous enterprise in which to invest long term, and has withered wars, recessions, and global shocks more startling than those we have been recently through.
If you hold:
(1) sufficient insurance
to
prevent your
"death-too-young" and "life-too-long,"
(2) an emergency fund
of 6-9 months, and
(3) have plans in place
for social milestones
like education, retirement, and transfer of one's estate...
Then you will be
well advised to demand:
- a diversified portfolio of stocks or mutual funds amongst industries,
companies and stable countries returning nearly 10% long term;
- not more than a reasonable 1 -1.5% fee from those who profess a fiduciary
relation to you and to managing your assets;
- compound rate of growth such that asset prices and dividend incomes
double the value of your portfolio in 8 or 9 years.
What's your opinion?
Part Four - Final Processing
(1)
Complete your own Quality Chart.
(2)
Provide closure to your team and class discussions.
(3) Get your homework assignment.
(See immediately below!)
| A | Summarize America's roller coaster economy after watching Economics USA Video #4 - "Booms and Busts." |
| B | Describe in three paragraphs - Leading, Lagging, and Coincident Indicators - What They Tell Us About the Direction of the American Economy. |
