To:  sbaker@odu.edu

From:  Thomas Meyer
tmeyer@ph.vccs.edu
276 656-0283
Patrick Henry Community College

Subject:  Statistics - w/  Dr.Spencer Baker - Final Exam.

Date: April 28, 2004

This exam is divided into two parts:

Use your mouse to move immediately to either Part I  or Part II, or to steps 1, 2, or 3 therein:

Part I Part II

Step 1 -  Look at the data
(reporting on missing data, skewness & kurtosis)
and report concerns

Step 1 -  Look at the data
(reporting on missing data, skewness & kurtosis)
and report concerns

Step 2 - Select and conduct the appropriate analysis

A collage about PHCC.

 

 


Step 2 - Select and conduct the appropriate analysis

Operationalizing "Previous Math Experience"
(Practice with computing additional explanatory variance)


Case 1 - Using Middle School GPA
Case 2 - Using Middle School Math GPA
Case 3 - Using Pre-instruction Math Problem Solving
Case 4 - Using ITED 8th Grade Math Score


 

Step 3 - Interpret your results Step 3 - Interpret your results

 

Part I of II

 

Step 1.    Here's a look at the data
(for both Part I and Part II):

A group of 49 students took algebra.  Among these, 26 underwent the metacognitive method and arrived at a final algebra grade; 23 were subjected to the lecture method and arrived at a final algebra grade.

From the boxplots set side-by-side, we can compare Final Grade Point Average statistics using both methods, Regarding the range of achievement in the course, grades ranged from 1.00 (D-) to 4.00 (A) in both groups.  Since the interquartile range is not affected by extreme scores, it is used to note the top (quartile 3) and bottom (quartile 1) lines in each red box.  From this comparison we notice that range of the middle two quartiles differs with respect to the lecture and metacognitive methods.  The metacognitive method produced a broader interquartile range of final grades   while final grades were more narrowly clustered for the students undergoing the lecture method.  Furthermore, the lowest boundary of the metacognitive interquartile range was higher than that of the lecture method, and the upper boundary of the metacognitive interquartile range was higher that that of the lecture method.  The median of the metacognitive sample of 26 students, (3.00)  was also higher than the median of the lecture sample of 23 students.  You can see why the original researcher was interested in discovering whether higher final algebra grades achieve via the metacognitive method might be due to reason other than chance.

A case processing summary shows that there were no missing cases among the 49 students.

Method of Math Instruction = Metacognitive Method

Immediate below is a table of statistics with which we can look at the 26 students who underwent the metacognitive method.
The average or mean grade among 26 student was 2.92.
The median was slightly higher at 3.00, and the reported lowest mode (because there were several ties for the most frequently report grade or mode) was 2.33.
The standard deviation was .77378.
The variance was .59874.
The standard error of skewness was .456.
The standard error of kurtosis was .887.
The skewness of the Final Algebra grade was -.547 indicating that there was a slight negative skew (zero reflecting no skew at all).
The kurtosis of the Final Algebra grade for the metacognitive method  was a negative value of -.063 indicating that the degree of "peakedness."  Negative values of kurtosis show that this group was very slightly playtykurtic or flatter than the mesokurtic normal distribution.

The mean Final Algebra Grade for the 26 students using the metacognitive method was 2.9231 which exceeded the mean for those taking the lecture method of instruction.

Immediately below is the frequency of the final algebra grades received by the 26 students who studied according to the metacognitive method.  It appears to have higher frequencies in its middle, and lower frequencies on its ends - characteristics derived from those which bring about a normal distribution.

The Frequency Diagram for Final Algebra Grade
for 26 Students Who Underwent
the Metacognitive Method

 

To facilitate Part II of the final exam, I also included below the possible variables with which I could operationalize the additional researcher's interests regarding the 26 students who underwent the metacognitive method:

 

Descriptive Statistics for 26 Students Who Underwent the Metacognitive Method

Variable Number Mean Standard Deviation Skewness Kurtosis
Method of Math Instruction 26 2.00 .000 (Dichotomous) N/A
Middle School GPA 26 3.06 .555 .019 -.735
Pre-instruction Math Attitude 26 51.58 19.211 .104 -.764
Pre-instruction Math Problem Solving 26 2.92 1.440 .841 .530
Pre-instruction General Problem Solving 26 1.81 .895 .770 1.538
ITED 8th Grade Math Score 26 74.46 14.114 -.424 -.626
Final Algebra Grade 26 2.9231 .77378 -.547 -.063

Metacognitive data sets and report on missing data:
For metacognitive method, 26 students were sampled and none were missing. 

Report on the means:
Means on all variables were positive numbers. 

Report on the standard deviations and variances:

The column "Std. Statistic" refers to standard deviation of that statistic, and if squared, results in the numbers found in the column labeled "Variance Statistic." 

Report on skewness:
ITED 8th Grade Math Scores and Final Algebra Grade showed negative skewness, -.424 and -.547 respectively with the latter indicating a greater degree of negativity and skewness than the former.  (Zero represents no skewness.)  All other variables showed positive skewness and those with higher values indicated higher degrees of positive skewness.

Report on kurtosis:
Those variables with a negative value of kurtosis showing a flatter or platykurtic nature included:
Middle School GPA;
Pre-instruction Math Attitude;
ITED 8th Grade Math Score; and
Final Algebra Grade.

Zero represents the mesokurtic  distribution;

Those variables with a positive value of kurtosis showing a steeper of leptokurtic nature included:
Pre-instruction Math Problem Solving; and
Pre-instruction General Problem Solving.

Method of Math Instruction = Lecture Method

 

For cases students 1 to 23 who underwent the traditional lecture method while taking algebra:

Again the case processing summary shows no missing data.

The descriptives show that among 23 students using lecture methods while taking algebra achieved:
a mean or average score of 2.5652 with a standard error of .20039.
The 95% confidence interval for the mean had a lower boundary of 2.1496 and an upper boundary of 2.9808.;
The median was 2.67.
The variance was .924.
The standard deviation was .96104.
The range of scores was larger, ranging from .00 to 4.00, and there were no reported scores at the 0.50 grade point average; so this group of students had an "outlier" who did not do very well on his/her final grade.
The interquartile range was 1.33.
The skewness was -1.139.
The kurtosis was 1.103.
 

The mean Final Algebra Grade for the 23 students using the lecture method was 2.5652 which was less than the mean reported earilier for those taking the lecture method of instruction.

The Frequency Diagram for Final Algebra Grade
for 23 Students Who Underwent
the Lecture Method

 

The frequency diagram above for Final Algebra Grade for 23 students who underwent the Lecture Method has higher frequencies in its mid-section and lower freqency counts in its tails, thus resembling the normal distribution.

To facilitate Part II of the final exam, I also included below the possible variables with which I could operationalize the additional researcher's interests regarding the 23 students who underwent the lecture method of instruction:

 

Descriptive Statistics for 23 Students Who Underwent the Lecture Method

Variable Number Mean Standard Deviation Skewness Kurtosis
Method of Math Instruction 23 1.00 .000 Dichotomous N/A
Middle School GPA 23 3.02 .519 .166 -.793
Pre-instruction Math Attitude 23 50.91 19.365 .261 -.803
Pre-instruction Math Problem Solving 23 2.57 1.199 .611 -.337
Pre-instruction General Problem Solving 23 1.70 .765 1.268 2.396
ITED 8th Grade Math Score 23 73.57 12.883 -.295 -.908
Final Algebra Grade 23 2.5652 .96104 -1.139 1.103

Lecture Method data sets and report on missing data:
For Lecture method, 23 students were sampled and none were missing. 

Report on the means:
Means on all variables were positive numbers. 

Report on the standard deviations and variances:

The column "Std. Statistic" refers to standard deviation of that statistic, and if squared, results in the numbers found in the column labeled "Variance Statistic." 

Report on skewness:
ITED 8th Grade Math Scores and Final Algebra Grade showed negative skewness, -.295 and -1.139 respectively with the latter indicating a greater degree of negativity and skewness than the former.  (Zero represents no skewness.)  All other variables showed positive skewness and those with higher values indicated higher degrees of positive skewness.

Report on kurtosis:
Those variables with a negative value of kurtosis showing a flatter or platykurtic nature included:
Middle School GPA;
Pre-instruction Math Attitude; and
Pre-instruction Math Problem Solving.
Zero represents the mesokurtic  distribution;

Those variables with a positive value of kurtosis showing a steeper of leptokurtic nature included:
Pre-instruction General Problem Solving; and
Final Algebra Grade.
 

Having looked at the data, and knowing that they are random, representative samples, I am confident that we can create an analysis and draw some inferences. I might have liked to have larger sample sizes so that we could use the Z-statistic, but we shall try to make do with the t-statistic given the small group sizes.

 

 

Step 2 - Select and conduct the appropriate analysis 

After a literature review a researcher wishes to determine whether the metacognitive method of math instruction brings about higher grades in algebra than grades achieved by students subject to the lecture method of math instruction.

The researcher was provided two samples of algebra final grades.  One sample had 23 students and their performance measured by final algebra grade after having received the traditional lectures in class.  The second sample at 26 students and their performance measured by final algebra grade received after they had studied algebra according to the metacognitive approach.  The researcher has the means and standard deviations of these two samples and believes them to be random, representative samples.

Here are the means, standard deviations, and sample sizes:

Sample 1: Underwent Lecture Method Sample 2: Underwent Metacognitive Method
sample 1 mean = 2.5652 sample 2 mean = 2.92
sample 1 standard deviation = .96104 sample 2 standard deviation = .77378
sample 1 size = 23 students sample 2 size = 26 students

Considerations:

1.  The sample sizes are less than 30, so we should not use a z-statistic; rather we should perform a t-statistic comparison of the means of the two samples

2.  We will use an alpha, or probability of Type I error of .05.

3.  One of the things we will have to know is whether or not the variances of the two groups are equal.  And it will help to have a table containing the following statistics for lecture and for metacognitive methods:
   - the number of students in each method;
   - their means;
   - their standard deviations; and
   - the standard error of the means

The Solution:


The Group Statistics Box below computed for each sample: number of students, mean, standard deviation, and standard error of mean.
(I have reproduced the table in case you cannot see the computed table.)
 

Group Statistics

Method of Instruction
(for final algebra grade)
N Mean Standard Deviation Standard Error of the Mean
Lecture Method 23 2.5652 .96104 .20039
Metacognitive Method 26 2.9231 .77378 .15175

4.  State the hypotheses:

We state the null hypothesis as a one-tail test that:

H-sub-o : mu-sub-1 is less than or equal to mu-sub-2  .... or .... HO: u1<= u2

The alternative hypothesis is that :
H-sub-1: mu-sub-1 is greater than mu-sub-2        ... or ... u1 > u2

If we can reject the null hypothesis, this will enable us to claim that the metacognitive method produces statistically better results than the traditional lecture method insofar as final grade achievement is concerned.  By structuring the hypotheses in this way, these differences could be claimed as exceeding the differences that could have resulted from pure chance alone.

The Independent Samples Test gives us an F value of .389 for Levene's test for the equality of variances, which is high and greater than 0.05, allowing us to use the row in the table called "Equal Variances Assumed."

(I have reproduced the data in the Independent Samples Test for equal variances assumed in case you cannot see the computed table, and added a line explaining how the significance of a one-tail test was computed.)

Independent Samples Test

t-test for Equality of Means

95% Confidence Interval of the difference

t

df

Sig (2-tailed)

Mean difference

Std. Error Difference

Lower

Upper

-1.443

47

.156

-.3579

.24803

.85684

.14112

The Significance for a one-tail test is 1/2 of .156 = .078


The Results Coach tells us:
A low significance value for the t test (typically less than 0.05) indicate that there is a significant difference between the two group means.
(We did not find this.)
If the confidence interval for the mean difference does not contain zero, this also indicates that the difference is significant.  (We did find this.)


Should we assume variances are equal or unequal?
The answer is found In the following Independent Samples Test Table, in which we find F value of .389 for Levene's test for the equality of variances, which is high and greater than 0.05, allowing us to use the row in the table called "Equal Variances Assumed."

5.  Find the critical value:

From the table above, the critical value for the t-statistic is -1.443.

6.  Compute the test value:

The computed test statistic is one-half the two-tailed value of .156 which is 0. 078.

7.  Make the decision:

Because 0.078 does not lie in the rejection region, (or because 0.078 > -1.443, we do not have enough evidence to support the claim that metacognitive training improves results over traditional lectures insofar as final grades in algebra is concerned. 

We do not have enough evidence to support the claim that metacognitive training improves results over traditional lectures insofar as final grades in algebra is concerned.

 

Step 3 - Interpret your results

Tables and Figures:

A researcher specific hypothesis was: "The metacognitive method of math instruction influences higher final Algebra grades than the lecture method of math instruction."

While examining the data I noticed that the boxplot below seemed to offer evidence that insofar as the interquartile differences were concerned, 26 sample students being taught through the metacognitive method seemed to produce higher first and third quartiles and a higher median value than did 23 students studying Algebra through the lecture method.

An initial boxplot shown below gave the impression after using SPSS to create it that

 

Both samples were reportedly random and representative leading me to believe that we were indeed measuring what we thought we were, and that a comparison of the means of two small samples using the t-statistic would be in order.  Hence the following table contained the necessary statistics to carry out such a hypothesis test.  Figures were computed using SPSS.

Group Statistics

Method of Instruction
(for final algebra grade)
N Mean Standard Deviation Standard Error of the Mean
Lecture Method 23 2.5652 .96104 .20039
Metacognitive Method 26 2.9231 .77378 .15175

SPSS was used to create the following Independent Samples Test:

Statistical Presentation:

A one-tail test carefully constructed so as, if ruled out, would rule in the researcher's hypothesis was constructed using alpha for type I error possibility of .05 was performed.  Equal variances were assumed based upon the F-value of the Levene Test.  Hence the top row of actual data beside "final algebra grade" was used.  It was necessary to "halve" the Sig. (2-tailed) value of .156 so as to perform a one-tail test.  The resulting .078 value did not, however, lie to the left on the number line of the t-value of -1.443 in a zone of rejection.

Effect size:

Recently, researchers have come to ask not only "Is the difference between sample means unlikely to have occurred by chance?", but also, "Is this difference large enough to be meaningful?"

The usual two group measure of effect size called "d" is given on page 334 of the text as equation13.14a.
I tried to use equation 13.6b on page 326 to calculate the pooled variance estimate because I knew both sample sizes and variances.  My pooled variance estimate equation 13.6b was thus [(26)(.59874) + (23)(.924)] / (26 23+2).
From the result,  .7834, I took the square root and put 0.8851 into the denominator of of equation 13.14a on text page 334.  The numerator in that equation was simply the difference in the sample means, or 2.9231 - 2.5632 = 0.3579.
Dividing .3579 by .8851 equaled .4044.  I interpreted this as meaning that being in the metacognitive group or in the traditional lecture group explained made a difference of less than one-half standard deviation, or more precisely, .4044 standard deviations.

Power:

Power was effectively established prior to collecting the data by establishing group sizes of 26 and 23 respectively.

Statistical Significance:

No statistical significance was found between the means of the two groups at alpha = .05.

Degrees of Freedom:

There were 47 degrees of freedom.  Each group having used up one degree of freedom, degrees of freedom for group sizes of 23 and 26 became 22 + 25 or 47.

Analysis Used:

The t-test was used, but failed to produce a result in the rejection region.
 

Inferences:

Hence, we do not have enough evidence to support the claim that metacognitive training improves results over traditional lectures insofar as final grades in algebra is concerned.  The particular samples that we observed could have contained the results we observed within the laws of chance.

Possible ramifications for future research include:
   - taking a look at and testing other samples,
   - increasing sample size, or
   - choosing a different alpha. (But that is not ordinarily allowed.  Alpha should be chosen before the calculations begin.)

 

 

 

 

Part II of II

The Search for the Case with the Highest Percent of Explained Variance


(Includes answers to the "mystery" of how much additional explained variance did Pre-instruction Math Attitude add to each case below.)

Case 1
The Case as Analyzed
During the Last In-class Meeting
Case 2
The Case as Analyzed
With an Improved Independent Variable
(Middle School Math GPA replaces
Middle School GPA)
Case 3
The Case as Analyzed
With an Improved Independent Variable
(Pre-instruction Math Problem Solving  replaces Middle School GPA.)
Case 4
The Case as Analyzed
With an Improved Independent Variable
(ITED 8th Grade Math Score  replaces Middle School GPA.)

 

#1

The Case #1 as Analyzed
During the Last In-class Meeting
(Using Middle School GPA)

 

Introduction to Case #1

Using a different perspective, a colleague believed final algebra grades could be predicted by the student's attitude toward math prior to instruction.  The colleague further believed that the pre-instruction attitude toward math would account for variance over and above previous math performance and method of math instruction.  He hypothesized that "While accounting for previous math performance and method of math instruction, pre-instruction attitude toward math accounts for additional statistically significant variance in final Algebra grades."

Click "All data," since it was already introduced above in Part I. 

Step 2 - Select and conduct the appropriate analysis 

Here is the case as it was presented in class:

Algorithm:

Using SPSS, load math.sav.

Manipulate the data as follows by choosing:
Analyze:
Regression:
Linear

For Model #1:
Move the variable Final Algebra Grade into the Dependent Variable Box
Move the variable Method of Math Instruction to the Independent Variable Box:
Move a measure of previous instruction, such as Middle School Math GPA to the Independent Variable Box.
(The instructor moved Middle School GPA to the box, but suggested not to use it, that there were others better to choose.)

For Model #2:
Click Next (meaning enter a different independent variable)
Move Pre-instruction Math Attitude to the independent variable box.

Click Statistics:
Check R-squared difference
Check Descriptives

No graphs are necessary
Check options:
Accept the F value of .05 as a default;

Click OK

Notes from the last class session:
Include a chart like the descriptives above.

Pearson Correlations

  Final Algebra Grade Method of Math Instruction Middle School GPA Pre-instruction Math Attitude
Final Algebra Grade        
Method of Math Instruction .206      
Middle School GPA .727 .035    
Pre-instruction Math Attitude -.697 .018 -.733  

Notes from the last class session:
Include a chart like the Bivariate Correlations in the "lower left hand triangle" above.

(Case 1)

Notes from the last class session:
Include a chart like the Model Summary above.

Note that Model 2 increases the proportion of the variance explained from an effect size (or Adjusted R-square value) from .542 to .600.  This means that the 2nd model increased the percentage of the variation explained from just over 54% to 60%.  More explicitly, this was and increase of 6.4% in explaining the proportion of variance from Model 1 to Model 2, thus confirming the 2nd researcher's hypothesis that when controlled for Method of Math Instruction and for an operationalized measure of previous math performance (such as the not-the-very-best-choice of Middle School GPA), then Pre-Instruction Attitude Toward Math would account for a statistically significant variance in Final Algebra grades.
 
Both models are significant given their low values reported in the Sig. F change column.

 

Notes from the last class session:
Include a chart like the Coefficients above.

 

 

#2

The Case #2 as Analyzed
With an Improved Independent Variable
(Middle School Math GPA)
 

Introduction to Case #2

Using a different perspective, a colleague believed final algebra grades could be predicted by the student's attitude toward math prior to instruction.  The colleague further believed that the pre-instruction attitude toward math would account for variance over and above previous math performance and method of math instruction.  He hypothesized that "While accounting for previous math performance and method of math instruction, pre-instruction attitude toward math accounts for additional statistically significant variance in final Algebra grades."  One of the important questions I must answer is how to operationalize previous math performance. The key idea to operationalizing previous math performance in Case #2 is to run the in-class Case #1 but substitute Middle School Math GPA  for Middle School GPA as shown in the algorithm below.

Click "All data," since it was already introduced above in Part I. 

 

Step 2 - Select and conduct the appropriate analysis 

Algorithm:

Using SPSS, load math.sav.

Manipulate the data as follows by choosing:
Analyze:
Regression:
Linear

For Model #1:
Move the variable Final Algebra Grade into the Dependent Variable Box
Move the variable Method of Math Instruction to the Independent Variable Box:
Move a measure of previous instruction, such as Middle School Math GPA to the Independent Variable Box.
(The instructor moved Middle School GPA to the box, but suggested not to use it, that there were others better to choose.)

For Model #2:
Click Next (meaning enter a different independent variable)
Move Pre-instruction Math Attitude to the independent variable box.

Click Statistics:
Check R-squared difference
Check Descriptives

No graphs are necessary
Check options:
Accept the F value of .05 as a default;

Click OK

 

Here is the case after I changed it (operationalized it) to exclude Middle School GPA and
to include Middle School Math GPA  :

 

Middle School Math GPA is likely to do a better job of mirroring the additional researcher's intentions because he wanted experience with previous math, not a generalized previous experience as implied by Middle School GPA.

The Descriptive Statistics Box above lists the Mean, Standard Deviation, and Number of students for the dependent variable Final Algebra Grade, and for the independent variables: Method of Math Instruction, Middle School Math GPA, and for Pre-instruction Math Attitude.

We can extract and discuss the following from the table above:

Pearson Correlations

  Final Algebra Grade Method of Math Instruction Middle School Math GPA
Final Algebra Grade      
Method of Math Instruction .206    
Middle School Math GPA .798 .021  
Pre-instruction Math Attitude -.697 .018 -.819

Method of Math Instruction: (1) shows a definite slight positive correlation with Final Algebra Grade, = .206

Middle School Math GPA: (1) shows a strong positive correlation with Final Algebra Grade, = .798
                    (2) shows a definite but slight positive correlation with  Method of Math Instruction, = .021

Pre-Instruction Math Attitude: (1) shows a strong negative correlation with Final Algebra Grade, = -.697; this is probably the case
                      because the higher the score the worse the attitude toward math becomes.
                      (2) shows a definite but slight positive correlation with Method of Math Instruction, = .021
                      (3) shows a strong negative correlation with Middle School Math GPA, = -.819; once again,
                      this is probably the case because the higher the score the worse the attitude toward math becomes.

 

Case 2

#3

The Case #3 as Analyzed
With another Improved Independent Variable
(Pre-instruction Math Problem Solving)
 

Introduction to Case #3

Using a different perspective, a colleague believed final algebra grades could be predicted by the student's attitude toward math prior to instruction.  The colleague further believed that the pre-instruction attitude toward math would account for variance over and above previous math performance and method of math instruction.  He hypothesized that "While accounting for previous math performance and method of math instruction, pre-instruction attitude toward math accounts for additional statistically significant variance in final Algebra grades."  One of the important questions I must answer is how to operationalize previous math performance. The key idea to operationalizing previous math performance in Case #3 is to run the in-class Case #1 but substitute Pre-instruction Math Attitude for Middle School GPA as shown in the algorithm below.

Click "All data," since it was already introduced above in Part I. 

 

Step 2 - Select and conduct the appropriate analysis 

Algorithm:

Using SPSS, load math.sav.

Manipulate the data as follows by choosing:
Analyze:
Regression:
Linear

For Model #3:
Move the variable Final Algebra Grade into the Dependent Variable Box
Move the variable Method of Math Instruction to the Independent Variable Box:
Move a measure of previous instruction, such as Pre-instruction Math Problem Solving to the Independent Variable Box.
(The instructor moved Middle School GPA to the box, but suggested not to use it, that there were others better to choose.)

For Model #3:
Click Next (meaning enter a different independent variable)
Move Pre-instruction Math Attitude to the independent variable box.

Click Statistics:
Check R-squared difference
Check Descriptives

No graphs are necessary
Check options:
Accept the F value of .05 as a default;

Click OK

 

Here is the case after I changed it (operationalized it) to exclude Middle School GPA and
to include Pre-instruction Math Problem Solving  :

Pre-instruction Math Problem Solving is likely to do a better job of mirroring the additional researcher's intentions than did Middle School GPA  because he wanted experience with previous math, not a generalized previous experience as implied by Middle School GPA.

The Descriptive Statistics Box above lists the Mean, Standard Deviation, and Number of students for the dependent variable Final Algebra Grade, and for the independent variables: Method of Math Instruction, Pre-instruction Math Problem Solving, and for Pre-instruction Math Attitude.

We can extract and discuss the following from the table above:

Pearson Correlations

  Final Algebra Grade Method of Math Instruction Pre-Instruction Math Problem Solving Pre-instruction Math Attitude
Final Algebra Grade        
Method of Math Instruction .206      
Pre-instruction Math Problem Solving .620 .136    
Pre-instruction Math Attitude -.697 .018 -.657  

Notes from the last class session:
Include a chart like the Bivariate Correlations in the "lower left hand triangle" above.

 

Method of Math Instruction: (1) shows a definite slight positive correlation with Final Algebra Grade, = .206

Pre-instruction Math Problem Solving: (1) shows a strong positive correlation with Final Algebra Grade, = .620
                                           (2) shows a definite but slight positive correlation with  Method of Math Instruction, = .136

Pre-Instruction Math Attitude: (1) shows a strong negative correlation with Final Algebra Grade, = -.697; this is probably the case
                                           because the higher the score the worse the attitude toward math becomes.
                                           (2) shows a definite but slight positive correlation with Method of Math Instruction, = .018
                                           (3) shows a strong negative correlation with Pre-instruction Math Problem Solving, = -.657; once again,
                                           this is probably the case because the higher the score the worse the attitude toward math becomes.

Case 3

 

 

 

 

#4

The Case #4 as Analyzed
With yet another Improved Independent Variable
(ITED 8th Grade Math Score)
 

Introduction to Case #4

Using a different perspective, a colleague believed final algebra grades could be predicted by the student's attitude toward math prior to instruction.  The colleague further believed that the pre-instruction attitude toward math would account for variance over and above previous math performance and method of math instruction.  He hypothesized that "While accounting for previous math performance and method of math instruction, pre-instruction attitude toward math accounts for additional statistically significant variance in final Algebra grades."  One of the important questions I must answer is how to operationalize previous math performance. The key idea to operationalizing previous math performance in Case #4 is to run the in-class Case #1 but substitute ITED 8th Grade Math Score  for Middle School GPA as shown in the algorithm below.

Click "All data," since it was already introduced above in Part I. 

 

Step 2 - Select and conduct the appropriate analysis 

Algorithm:

Using SPSS, load math.sav.

Manipulate the data as follows by choosing:
Analyze:
Regression:
Linear

For Model #1:
Move the variable Final Algebra Grade into the Dependent Variable Box
Move the variable Method of Math Instruction to the Independent Variable Box:
Move a measure of previous instruction, such as ITED 8th Grade Math Score to the Independent Variable Box.
(The instructor moved Middle School GPA to the box, but suggested not to use it, that there were others better to choose.)

For Model #2:
Click Next (meaning enter a different independent variable)
Move Pre-instruction Math Attitude to the independent variable box.

Click Statistics:
Check R-squared difference
Check Descriptives

No graphs are necessary
Check options:
Accept the F value of .05 as a default;

Click OK

 

Here is the case after I changed it (operationalized it) to exclude Middle School GPA and
to include ITED 8th Grade Math Score  :

ITED 8th Grade Math Score is likely to do a better job of mirroring the additional researcher's intentions because he wanted experience with previous math, not a generalized previous experience as implied by Middle School GPA.

The Descriptive Statistics Box above lists the Mean, Standard Deviation, and Number of students for the dependent variable Final Algebra Grade, and for the independent variables: Method of Math Instruction, ITED 8th Grade Math Score, and for Pre-instruction Math Attitude.

We can extract and discuss the following from the table above:

Pearson Correlations

  Final Algebra Grade Method of Math Instruction ITED 8th Grade Math Score
Final Algebra Grade      
Method of Math Instruction .206    
ITED 8th Grade Math Score .744 .034  
Pre-instruction Math Attitude -.697 .018 -.802

Method of Math Instruction: (1) shows a definite slight positive correlation with Final Algebra Grade, = .206

ITED 8th Grade Math Score: (1) shows strong positive correlation with Final Algebra Grade, = .744
                                                      (2) shows slight positive correlation with Method of Math Instruction, = .034

Pre-Instruction Math Attitude: (1) shows a strong negative correlation with Final Algebra Grade, = -.697; this is probably the case because the higher the score the worse the attitude toward math becomes.
                                                     (2) shows a definite but slight positive correlation with Method of Math Instruction, = .018
                                                     (3) shows a strong negative correlation with ITED 8th Grade Math Score, = -.802;
                                                      once again, th is probably the case because the higher the score
                                                      the worse the attitude toward math becomes.

 

Case 4

 

 

 

 

 

Step 3 - Interpret your results

 

Tables and Figures:

Tables of means and standard deviations for the four the variables contained in Model 1 and Model 2 of each of the four cases have already been introduced earlier.  They are summarized in tabular form below.
 

Descriptive Statistics of Continuous Variables

Variable Number Means Std. Deviation Skewness Kurtosis
Middle School GPA 49 3.04 .533 .085 -.802
Middle School Math GPA 49 2.92 .552 .454 -.815
Pre-instruction Math Attitude 49 51.27 19.084 .172 -.834
Pre-instruction Math Problem Solving 49 2.76 1.331 .803 .401
Pre-Instruction General Problem Solving 49 1.76 .830 .950 1.601
Ited 8th Grade Math Score 49 74.04 13.418 -.352 -.775
Final Algebra Grade 49 2.7551 .87619 -.976 1.092

The table shows 7 continuous variables and their relevant statistics.
There were no missing data.
Means were all positive.
Standard deviations are reported for each variable.
On the first five variables skewness was positive; on the last two variables skewness was negative.
Kurtosis was negative on the first, secon, third, and and sixth variables; kurtosis was positive on the fourth, fifth, and seventh variables.

The bivariate correlations were also introduced earlier. The following table brings together the R-squared changes brought about by running each of 4 cases in the same way, except for having changed a single variable within each of the four cases.  Said more specifically, in each of four cases I built Model 1 using the same process, but changed the variable with which we would attempt to measure previous math experience.  I then ran model two in such a way as to extract and capture the change in explained variance.

The variables used to "capture" previous math experience were as follows:
Case 1 - Middle School GPA;
Case 2 - Middle School Math GPA;
Case 3 -  Pre-instruction Math Problem Solving;
Case 4 - ITED 8th Grade Math Score.

In my mind, this was a desirable and plausible means of examining the additional researcher's hypothesis in a way in which we could extract data and make a judgment as to the additional amounts of explained variance discovered by running four separate cases.  The results are of the R-Square change are depicted in green and at alpha =.05 the statistically significant changes as the result of the F-test are readily displayed.

(R-Square Change Findings in white are statistically significant at alpha = .05)

  R Square Adjusted R Square R Square Change   D. F. 1 D.F. 2 Sig. F Change
               
Case 1              
Model 1 .561 .542 .561   2 46 .000
Model 2 .625 .600 .064   1 45 .008
               
Case 2              
Model 1 .673 .659 .673   2 46 .000
Model 2 .681 .659 .007   1 45 .314
               
Case 3              
Model 1 .400 .374 .400   2 46 .000
Model 2 .564 .535 .164   1 45 .000
               
Case 4              
Model 1 .586 .568 .586   2 46 .000
Model 2 .619 .593 .033   1 45 .054

Notice that six of the Sig. F Change values in white background the previous table were less than alpha = .05.
R-Square Change was statistically significant at the alpha = .05 level for each of these six cases.
Thus in Model 2 of Case 1 and again in Model 2 of Case 3, the additional researcher was able to reject the null hypothesis of "no difference."  
In Model 2 of Case 1 and in Model 2 of Case 3 the R-Square Change was statistically significant at the .05 level of significance.  However, we reach the opposite conclusion about R-Square Change in Model 2 of Case 2 and of Case 4.  There was no difference which could not have been accounted for within the ordinary bounds of chance.

Statistical Presentation:

Adjusted R Square is in each case and each model less than R Square, as could be expected.
R Square Change for model 2 in each case shows the increase in explained variance.

Here are the two most prominent findings:

1.  The greatest increase in explained variance occurred when running model 2 of  case 3;  but case 3 also had the poorest or smallest amount of explained variance to begin with.

2.  The least increase in explained variance occurred when running model 2 of case 2; but case 2 also had the highest amount of explained variance to begin with.

R-Square Change from Model 1 to Model 2

The Variable Deliberately Changed was ... 


Most Change

Case 3 = .164

Middle School GPA
  Case 1 = .064 Middle School Math GPA
  Case 4 = .033 Pre-Instruction Math Score
Least Change Case 2 = .007 ITED 8th Grade Math Score

Effect Size:

In all cases, R Square is a measure of effect size.
In every case, R Square improved as the result of adding the additional explanatory variable, showing that the additional variable helped explain a higher proportion of variance.

Power:

Power was effectively established before the statistical processes were conceived and was not subject to variability nor control by the researchers.

Analysis Used:

A comparative measure of R-squared change was computed after invoking the Latin phrase "ceteris paribus," that is, by holding everything else constant, and changing one variable in each of four cases with the intent of discovering the amount of additionally explained variance that would result from this procedure.

Inferences:

R-Square Findings

1.  The additional researcher was correct in Case1 and in Case 3 in theorizing that "While accounting for previous math performance and method of math instruction, pre-instruction attitude toward math accounts for additional statistically significant variance in Final Algebra Grade."  By correct, I mean that my statistical analysis showed that we could compute the amount of additionally explainable variance would be rendered by different operationalized measures of previous math performance and find them statistically significant.  Pre-instruction Math Attitude toward math did account for statistically significant amounts of variance in Final Algebra Grade when "previous math experience" was measured by Middle School GPA and when "previous math experience" was measured by Pre-instruction Math Problem Solving. 

2.  However, the additional researcher could not reject the hypothesis of no difference in Case 2 and in Case 4.  The variables Middle School Math GPA and ITED 8th Grade Math Score entered so as to operationalize previous math experience did not yield changes in R-Square of improvements in measured variance that were statistically significant.

3A..  However, in rank ordering these difference wrought by changed operationalized measures of previous math instruction, I was humbled by discovering that the greatest difference in R-square came from a case with the lowest explained variance to begin with. 
3B.  Secondarily, the least difference in R-square came from a case with the most explained variance to begin with.

Beta Findings

The tables of standardize beta coefficients, standardized t-values and significance accompanying Cases 1, 2, 3, and 4 are reproduced below.  Within these tables I have created a white background to call your attention to those statistically significant absolute t-values in excess 1.96.  We can confirm their statistical significance by noticing their corresponding significance values as less than alpha = .05

Case 1 Table of Standardized Beta Coefficients

(Standardized t-values in white show that those Betas were statistically significant at alpha = .05)

 

Model Standardized Beta
Coefficient
Standardized t-value Significance
1 - Method of Math Instruction .180 1.847 .071

1 - Middle School GPA
.721 7.378 .000

2- Method of Math Instruction
.197 2.148 .037
2- Middle School GPA .448 3.326 .002
2 - Pre-instruction Math Attitude -.372 -2.764 .008


 

Case 2 Table of Standardized Beta Coefficients

Model Standardized Beta
Coefficient
Standardized t-value Significance
1 - Method of Math Instruction .189 2.244 .030

1 - Middle School Math GPA
.794 9.426 .000

2- Method of Math Instruction
.194 2.303 .026
2- Middle School Math GPA .672 4.564 .000
2 - Pre-instruction Math Attitude -1.50 -1.019 .314

 

Case 3 Table of Standardized Beta Coefficients

Model Standardized Beta
Coefficient
Standardized t-value Significance
1 - Method of Math Instruction .124 1.077 .287
1 - Pre-instruction Math Problem Solving .604 5.235 .000

2- Method of Math Instruction
.183 1.824 .075
2- Pre-Instruction Math
Problem Solving
.239 1.796 .079
2 - Pre-instruction Math Attitude -.543 -4.118 .000

 

Case 4 Table of Standardized Beta Coefficients

Model Standardized Beta
Coefficient
Standardized t-value Significance
1 - Method of Math Instruction .181 1.907 .063

1 - Middle School GPA
.738 7.767 .000
2- Method of Math Instruction .195 2.109 .041
2- ITED 8th Grade Math Score .492 3.185 .003
2 - Pre-instruction Math Attitude -.306 -1.979 .054

(Pre-Instruction Math Attitude: the higher the score the worse the attitude toward math becomes.)

1.  Again in Case1 and Case 3 we find at a statistically significant level that Pre-instruction Math Attitude did indeed account for additionally explained variance in determining Final Algebra Grade, having controlled for Method of Math Instruction and for "operationalized" measures of previous math instruction.

2. The variables which were operationalized during these statistically significant findings were Middle School GPA and Pre-instruction Math Problem solving.

3.  Again in Case 2 and Case 4, we did not find statistically significant impacts from Pre-instruction Math Attitude when it was superimposed upon Method of Math Instruction and operationalized measures of previous math performance.

4.  In Cases 2 and 4 the operationalized  measures of previous math performance were Middle School Math GPA and ITED 8th Grade Math Score.

Future Research:

These findings suggest that there are variety of variables worthy of further research with which to try and discover the best predictors of Algebra Final Grade Point Average.

When the null hypothesis "that there was no statistically significant difference" has been rejected in favor of accepting an alternative hypothesis, one of several possibilities exists:

1.  Direct cause and effect -
The strongest and most difficult to identify would be that there is a direct cause and effect relationship between the variables under study.  (Holding mammals underwater causes them to drown.)

2.  There may be a reverse relationship -
 "X may cause Y, or alternatively, "Y may cause X."  (Caffeine makes me nervous, but when I'm nervous I drink more coffee to settle my nerves.)

3.  The relationship may be caused by the presence of third variables -
This is likely the case in a phenomenon as complex as predicting Final Algebra Grade.  (Drowning and beer consumption may be correlated during summer months, but each is affected by many other variables such as whether it is too cold to swim, and whether or not I have enough income to purchase alcohol.)

4.  There may be a complexity of interelations among many variables -
This another likely possibility in the present research.  The influence of parents, whether the students attended public or private schools, and the absence of tutoring would have possible effects on the data within this study.

5.  Relationships may be coincidental -
Relations observed may in fact have happened because sampling included the kinds of data which is improbable.  Research cannot establish the truth, but can chip away at error by disproving assertions within the boundaries established by chance and appropriate use of statistics.

 

 

filename: StatisticsFinalExamTomMeyer.doc

Tom Meyer

Thomas Meyer
Patrick Henry Community College
tmeyer@ph.vccs.edu
276 656-0283